Speaker: Professor Ciaran Driver, SOAS University of London
Chair: Professor Victor Murinde, SOAS University of London
Time: Wednesday, 5 February 2020, 13:00-15:00
Venue: S314 (Paul Webley Wing, Senate House), SOAS University of London

Abstract
This paper provides a retrospective look at the business environment of South African manufacturing since the transition to democracy, with a focus on the role that domestic and trade competition play in economic performance. Data from the Bureau of Economic Research are used to test a number of effects on manufacturing industry that were envisaged to flow from increased competitiveness, including effects on mark-ups, productivity, exports, employment, and investment.  While South African economic policy after the transition is often viewed through the lens of trade liberalization, a wider debate is whether general competitive pressure was a sufficient or necessary condition for sustained growth.

I use time series survey data on business mark-ups, business constraints, and activity levels. Combined with data on the real exchange rate an analysis of these data suggest that current commentators may have overestimated the benign effects of trade competition and underestimated the challenges of supply side development of the manufacturing sector. 

Seminar presenter

Ciaran Driver is Professor of Economics at the School of Finance and Management, SOAS. He works on capital investment, corporate governance, firm decision-making. He has co-authored work on R&D decisions (Research Policy 2012 and Industrial and Corporate Change 2017); on advertising and industry (Jnl of Economic Surveys 2017); and on dividend policy (Economic Modelling 2020). Recent books include Driver and Temple The Unbalanced Economy (Blackwell 2014) and Driver and Thompson (eds) Corporate Governance in Contention (OUP 2018). He has worked on policy questions, such as industrial strategy, for the Government Office for Science (UK) and the Barker Review. Recent work on South Africa has included a study of the accuracy of the BER survey forecasts (Journal of Forecasting 2019).  He is a trustee of the New Economics Foundation.