Time: 13:00-15:00 (UK Time), Wednesday, 3 May 2023
Presenter: Dr Osman Ouattara, University of Manchester
Chair: Professor Victor Murinde, SOAS University of London

Abstract
Over the last decades the frequency of natural disasters has increased almost four-fold. In addition to their human costs, natural disasters also bear considerable economic and social costs. In this study we investigate the response of international reserves to natural disasters shocks. Our key objective is to explore whether these frequent exposures to natural disasters make developing countries more susceptible to external vulnerability. For this purpose, we assemble a panel data of 98 countries covering the period 1970-2018. Methodologically, we adopt a panel VAR technique which accommodates exogenous shocks. Moreover, we quantify and isolate the effect of four types of natural disasters (drought, floods, earthquake, and storms). The empirical results show that depending on the type of natural disasters countries ‘external vulnerability seems to worsen. To be more specific, the main results reveal that countries that are hit by floods, and to some extent storms, are more prone to external vulnerability. Further disaggregation of our sample into sub-samples, based on geographical regions, reveals different outcomes. For instance, in Sub-Saharan Africa, floods and storms increase vulnerability; in Latin America and the Caribbean storms seem to be the culprit; whereas in MENA countries natural disasters do not seem to exert a discerning effect on external vulnerability. 

Presenter

Osman Ouattara is a development economist and a reader in development economics at the Global Development Institute (The University of Manchester). He obtained a PHD in Economics from the University of Manchester. His research focuses on the macroeconomic effects of natural disasters/climate change. He has also worked in other areas of development economics including, International Finance (Foreign Aid and FDI), Poverty & Inequality; Growth and Productivity; Institutions, etc. He has published several papers on the macroeconomic effects of natural disasters and climate change. He has recently released a new dataset on property rights.